A stock operator's thoughts and ideas about market principles
Stock Trader and
Economy Student
J.P. Janssen's website.The purpose of the site is to discuss ideas and principles about markets. More |
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Sections Empirical Tests Market Models Cycles Practical Trading Mathematical Psychology Biology Philosophy Personal Development The Importance of ... Poetry Global Warming Complete Archive |
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The Special Sections Relative Sizes Quotes The Domino Effect |
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Recommended Books The Edu. of a Speculator 
Practical Speculation 
The Black Swan 
Fooled by Randomness 
Market Wizards 
Reminis. of a Stock Operator 
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Recommended Websites Daily Speculations Science Daily CIA World Factbook Project Gutenberg LibriVox |
Dec/29/2006
Thank You, Lady Fortuna
A year comes to an end and it's time to analyze all my notes and numbers. One thing is to be proud of all the good things that have happened, something else is to have an objective description of why they happened. I must say that Lady Fortuna has been good to me this year - and the last four years in a stock market sense. A rule of thumb I stick to is that when I fail I must learn from my mistake, and when I succeed I must grab the opportunity to grow.
Every good thing worth fighting for involves risk. Lady Fortuna is fair. Sometimes she smiles at you, sometimes she doesn't. But it's up to you to cooperate with her when you have the chance. Actually there is one way of becoming independent of her, and that is by doing your thing enough times for the law of large numbers to apply. This is what I have been trying to do with my trading, but a few random events are never the less extremely important for my result and the trader I am today.
* My first stock was bought on Feb 24th 2003. The lowest close of the Oslo Benchmark Index since then was the next day at 98.57. Today it's at 440. That's an up drift of 346%!
* Since I started counting Sep '03 the index has gone up 117 and down 55 weeks.
* An (extremely small) investment in an oil company gave me a 2,975% return over three years.
* Victor Niederhoffer and his staff have mentored me in Connecticut.
* The most prestigious school in Norway accepted me.
* Melbourne University granted me on a study abroad program.
Lucky yes, I had no way of foreseeing this. But this is how Miss Fortuna works. Dumb luck or not - today I am a better trader than I would have been if any of these hadn't occurred. I guess it's the same with every giant tree. Sure it's survival of the fittest, but for the individual it's a dice game where some have marginal better probabilities than others. Thankfully for humans there are plenty of chances, and the Lady will eventually smile to anyone who keeps on trying. I'll just never forget that whereas success is the result of luck, luck has to be seized.
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