Copyright © 2005 - 2008 developingtrader.com   
Developing Trader
A stock operator's thoughts and ideas about market principles

 

Stock Trader and Economy Student J.P. Janssen's website.

The purpose of the site is to discuss ideas and principles about markets.

More

Sections

Empirical Tests
Market Models
Cycles
Practical Trading
Mathematical Psychology
Biology
Philosophy
Personal Development
The Importance of ...
Poetry
Global Warming

Complete Archive

The Special Sections

Relative Sizes
Quotes
The Domino Effect

Recommended Books

The Edu. of a Speculator
Practical Speculation
The Black Swan
Fooled by Randomness
Market Wizards
Reminis. of a Stock Operator

Recommended Websites

Daily Speculations
Science Daily
CIA World Factbook
Project Gutenberg
LibriVox



Add to Google


 

Jan/14/2006
Single stocks after positive and negative days

Last week I looked at S&P 500 and found that the average move in the index is better after a positive than a negative day. Now I've done the same test with three random blue-chip stocks; General Motors, Coca-Cola, and IBM.

From 1980 to 2001 I've sorted out positive and negative days, and calculated the average move the next 1, 5, 10, 100 and 1000 trading days

Move Number of trading days after move
1 5 10 100 1000
General Motors
Up .087 % .134 % .349 % 4.868 % 40.680 %
Down .028 % .366 % .622 % 5.619 % 43.007 %
Coca-Cola
Up .149 % .377 % .730 % 8.298 % 123.939 %
Down .042 % .506 % .945 % 8.749 % 121.261 %
IBM
Up .063 % .226 % .602 % 5.434 % 80.824 %
Down .061 % .386 % .646 % 6.794 % 83.170 %

In GM and Coca-Cola we see a huge difference the next day. Buying on a positive day will give - on average - a better move the next day. However, this is not the case for IBM.

For a longer time frame, buying on a negative day shows up to be the most profitable.

As I mentioned in the S&P 500 test, these numbers may not be the case today because of the computer revolution and ever-changing cycles. However, let's say the effect still exists. Then it's clear that you should buy these stocks on a negative day. If you buy on a positive day, the estimated long time return is a so much lower that you would better wait until a down day. On the other hand, If you buy on a down-day the next day move is still better than the interest rate the next day, so there's no need to wait.

When it comes to selling, the average next day move is better than the interest rate on money (actually the lowest next day move, GM; 1.00028^365 - 1 = 10.8% annually). Therefore selling is - at least according to this test - something that should not be timed, but postponed to as late as possible. On the other hand, if you have a good alternative placement of the money a comparison of the expectancies must be considered, and selling on a down-day is generally better in the really short run.

As in the previous test, it only shows what would have been best in the past, and I can not guarantee the same is true today. It's also worth mentioning that blue-chips and smaller, less traded stocks may have different characteristics.



< Newer Article Older Article >




Leave a Comment Name Email (optional)
Message
Verification Code        




Copyright © 2005 - 2008 developingtrader.com